Global Weirding the new hot air

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About fenbeagleblog

Just a small bog dog scent hound
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18 Responses to Global Weirding the new hot air

  1. Roger C says:

    Oh Fen you are awful but I like it!
    p.s. Instead of Kitty Kat, how about “Lunchbox George”.

  2. renewabilly says:

    Ha! Brilliant as ever.

  3. izen says:

    Lovely stuff Fen.

    An insider tip on the subject of global weirding. The claim that any extreme weather is made more probable by climate change and therefore any recent extremes are evidence of that change in probability is suspect.
    The usual assumption about the probability of an event is that the variation follows a Gaussian distribution, or a normal curve. Like throwing dice the six comes up one in six times, and while it may be weighted, the bias is constant and each throw is independent. Climate change is hypothesised to shift the curve (bias/weight the dice)increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme events.

    However weather extremes do NOT follow a Normal distribution. They do not even follow a power law like Earthquakes. The actual pattern has no similarity to the dice-throwing or Monte Carlo simulation of random variation that is most often used to calculate changing probabilities.
    The actual weather record shows a very Non-Gaussian distribution. It is chaotic rather than random so that extreme events are actually MORE likely than a simple probability prediction would expect. It is more like a dice that might only throw 4 and 5 for ten throws and then always throws a triple sequence of 6s followed by a 1. In other words there are inherent patterns and probabilities in the values, and the average value for many throws may be the same as for a normal random dice, but the actual pattern of numbers will be far more complex and variable.

    Look up the Hurst data on Nile flooding for an example of how chaotic, fractal structure in the weather variations make predicting averages, or changes from those averages, less than straight forward.
    Another example of this non-random structure to weather-climate weirdness is the chaotic, fractal variation of the ENSO cycle. It has proved to be inherently unpredictable, but is clearly NOT random, but a quasi-periodic system with a high degree of autocorrelation.

    One caveat. Some of the modern analysis of weather extremes does take into account the non-Gaussian nature of the variation and uses the ratio of hot/cold or wet/dry records to try and identify the changes in volatility of chaotic systems. While much more uncertain than conventional probability assessments, the change in the envelope of possible behaviour can be far greater than would be expected from a linear, random system.

  4. meltemian says:

    Ahhhhh…but who is “Thing”?
    …….and Cousin Itt, but apart from Boris nobody has enough hair to be Itt do they?

  5. Josh says:

    Lovely! As always ;-)

  6. spence says:

    Fen, looking at our side (the realists) I often lament that we don’t have the funding, the gloss and occasionally the inspiration or professionalism, you do, your work is A1 in every respect.

    Just one small criticism, did you really have to give Galloway a cleavage?

  7. alexjc38 says:

    What a ghastly gallery of gruesome grifters! Halloween comes early this year, I see. Nice one, Fen!

  8. Disko Troop says:

    Ace!

  9. Brian H says:

    Weird wording works wonders, weather whackos wish.
    __
    Izen;
    Aside from all that lumpiness in extremes, it also is thermodynamically obvious that warming the high latitudes flattens the energy slope, reducing the vigor of flows. OTOH, cooling increases said slope, increasing the power and likelihood of extreme weather. Historical records of the LIA strongly support this.

  10. Kitler says:

    Excellent as usual. Now all we need is someone to do the music and use your words and make a youtube video.

  11. Ozboy says:

    Here’s a video from out of the vault, circa 1964:

    I’m speechless.

  12. otters says:

    Join us and circulate the petition to reduce the subsidy for wind farms please. Just click on the link
    http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/22704
    Thanks!

  13. Any public debate on the box about the phony GLOBAL warming; should be a warning: not recommended for adults, unless accompanied by children. If it’s under children’s supervision, parents will realize that: Arctic ice is melting, because Santa made extension to his toy factory = extra CO2. Plus it’s melting, because of Rudolf’s methane. Active Warmist and Fake Skeptic adults are plying too much with their own water-pistols; until Santa produces more plastic water pistols. If is needed to cool the planet; better by plastic water pistols what children use; than adult fanatic Believers to get blind, by using theirs

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